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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGlobal policymakers gathered in Tbilisi for the Asian Development Bank's Annual MeetingGlobal policymakers gathered in Tbilisi for the Asian Development Bank's Annual Meeting. CNBC's Dan Murphy reports.
Persons: CNBC's Dan Murphy Organizations: Global Locations: Tbilisi
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during a briefing on the Global Policy Agenda at IMF headquarters during the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, DC on April 18, 2024. Kristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, played down the prospect of any negative impact from a monetary policy divergence between Europe and the U.S., but said issues could be more acute in emerging markets. The benchmark rates of most advanced economies soared in recent years, as central banks aimed to tame inflation following the Covid-19 pandemic. A high U.S. interest rate environment is traditionally bad news for emerging markets, as it makes their debts — often priced in U.S. dollars — more expensive. "It is a much more serious issue for countries where the impact of high interest rates in the United States are more profound — in many emerging market economies," Georgieva told CNBC's Silvia Amaro in Brussels on Monday.
Persons: Kristalina Georgieva, Georgieva, CNBC's Silvia Amaro Organizations: Monetary Fund, IMF, International Monetary Fund Locations: Washington , DC, Europe, U.S, United States, Brussels, Japan
S&P 500 futures added 0.2% and Nasdaq-100 futures advanced 0.3%. The losses caused the Dow to shed 2.4% last week for its worst week since March 2023 and its second down week in a row. The S&P 500 slid 1.5% for its worst week since October 2023. Iran launched drones and missiles on Israel on Saturday night, marking the first direct attack on Israel from Iranian territory. Guha added that the a key question remaining is how Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will respond to the attack.
Persons: Dow, Krishna Guha, Evercore, Guha, Benjamin Netanyahu, Biden, Netanyahu, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Iran's, Dow, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Global Policy, Central Bank Strategy, Israel, T, Treasury, JPMorgan Locations: Israel, Iran
That idea of guaranteed income is receiving renewed interest as AI becomes an increasing threat to Americans’ livelihoods. As more Americans’ jobs are increasingly at risk due to the threat of AI, Tubbs and other proponents of guaranteed income say this could be one solution to help provide a safety net and cushion the expected blow AI will have on the labor market. “Then, when we have to deal with that job displacement, we’re better positioned to do so.”Silicon Valley’s infatuation with guaranteed incomeThe idea of a guaranteed income is not new. AFP/Getty ImagesDecades after King’s death, the idea of guaranteed income went on to see a resurgence of support emanating out of Silicon Valley. Other tech industry tycoons, including Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey, have also thrown immense financial support behind guaranteed income programs.
Persons: CNN — Michael Tubbs, Tubbs, , , ” Michael Tubbs, Nick Otto, ” Tubbs, Nathan Frandino, Let’s, Martin Luther King, Jr, I’m, ” King, King, Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman —, Musk, Rishi Sunak, Zuckerberg, ” Altman, Altman, Sam Altman, Justin Sullivan, Elizabeth Rhodes, Jack Dorsey, Dorsey, Ken Paxton, ” Paxton, overreach, ‘ It’s, ’ Tomas Vargas Jr, Vargas, I’ve, that’s, ” Tomas Vargas Jr, Tomas Vargas Jr, ” Vargas Organizations: CNN, Getty, Global, Monetary Fund, Reuters, Stockton, Civil Rights, Washington DC, Elon, , UK, Harvard, Facebook, YCombinator, Twitter, UPS Locations: Stockton , California, Silicon Valley, Big, America, Stockton, AFP, San Joaquin, U.S, Washington, Alaska, YCombinator, San Francisco , California, United States, Texas, Harris, Harris County
Three Greenhouse Gases, Three All-Time Highs
  + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( David Gelles | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
They’re all the product of global warming, which is being driven by the release of the three most important heat-trapping gases: carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. And according to a new study from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, emissions of those three greenhouse gases continued to surge last year to historic highs. Global average carbon dioxide concentrations jumped last year, “extending the highest sustained rate of CO2 increases” in NOAA’s 65 years of record-keeping. All this despite a wave of global policy measures and economic incentives designed to wean the world off fossil fuels. In each case, the rising emissions continued a long-term trend.
Persons: , Organizations: National Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, NOAA Locations: NOAA’s
While most of the market's attention has been on interest rates, the Federal Reserve is quietly getting ready to loosen policy in another respect as it prepares to slow down the shedding of assets on its balance sheet. Tapering down the roll-off could see the Fed reducing the caps in half, according to a projection from BNP Paribas. The QT program has resulted in a nearly $1.3 trillion reduction in total holdings, with the total balance sheet now standing at about $7.7 trillion. With confidence growing that inflation is easing, policymakers are looking to loosen up policy, albeit at a measured pace. So at this meeting, we did have some discussion of the balance sheet, and we're planning to begin in-depth discussions of balance sheet issues at our next meeting in March," Chair Jerome Powell said in his January post-meeting news conference .
Persons: Krishna Guha, Goldman Sachs, We're, Jerome Powell, we're Organizations: Federal Reserve, Evercore ISI, Fed, MBS, New York Fed, BNP Paribas, BNP
If nothing else, the January inflation report released Tuesday finally appears to have convinced markets that Federal Reserve officials weren't kidding around when they said they will take a deliberate approach to cutting interest rates this year. Following the consumer price index report showing the year-over-year reading well ahead of the Fed's desired inflation goal, markets recalibrated their monetary policy expectations. The Fed "faces a challenging task in balancing economic growth and employment while trying to control inflation," he added. Indeed, the narrative of the Fed being able to start cutting early, and moving rapidly through the year, was all but dead Tuesday. The January CPI report is a "setback for the Fed and makes a May rate cut unlikely.
Persons: Ditto, , it's, Sung Won Sohn, Dow, Jerome Powell, Jason Pride, there's, Powell, Matthew Ryan, Krishna Guha, Guha Organizations: Federal Reserve, CME, Labor, CPI, Loyola Marymount University, SS Economics, Dow Jones, US2Y, CBS, Bank of America, Citigroup, Fed, Evercore ISI
Rising geopolitical headwinds and the potential for political turmoil could combine to thwart investors' hopes for the Federal Reserve to enact sharp interest rate cuts this year, according to JPMorgan Chase strategists. Markets have been betting that the Fed likely will start lowering its benchmark short-term borrowing rate by May or even as early as March. JPMorgan's investment team said the calculus could be important for investors as stocks and other asset classes look for direction. In recent days, multiple Fed officials have made remarks insisting that they are in no hurry to start cutting rates. For the full year, traders have gone from a strong chance of six cuts to a coin-flip between five and six.
Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Raphael Bostic, Christopher Waller, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Chase, JPMorgan, U.S, Fed, European Central Bank, Atlanta Fed, Federal, Market, Traders, Commerce Department Locations: 1H24
Goldman Sachs"We expect price increases to be driven by modest earnings growth and well-supported price-to-earnings multiples," wrote Austin Pickle, a strategist at WFII, in a January 16 note. Stucky continued: "I've never seen a re-acceleration in earnings growth — which is what the baseline expectation is for earnings — absent some sort of economic recovery or an acceleration in economic growth. He noted that many factors influence profits, but added that his forward model suggests there's earnings risk ahead. Bianco said he expects flat or mid-single-digit earnings growth for stocks in most sectors. However, he said that during expansions, GDP growth is a poor predictor of earnings growth.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Austin Pickle, Jonathan Golub, Golub, Matt Stucky, Stucky, I've, Brad Klapmeyer, He's, Klapmeyer, Anthony Saglimbene, , Saglimbene, Saglimbene doesn't, David Bianco, Bianco Organizations: Business, Wells, Investment Institute, UBS, Federal Reserve, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Macquarie Asset Management, DWS Group
December's inflation data provided just enough evidence to show that the pace of price increases is continuing to cool while also serving up a reminder that the war isn't won yet. One is that regardless of the headline numbers, the parts of inflation that don't fluctuate as much have been fairly stubborn. So-called sticky inflation, which includes things such as housing costs, auto insurance, medical care services and household furnishings, are indeed holding higher. On a one-month annualized basis, the measure also was at 4.6%, but that's up a full percentage point from the previous month. Fed policymakers also are attuned to the relationship between wages and inflation.
Persons: isn't, Disinflation, Jamie Dimon, cautioning, Krishna Guha, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Ian Shepherdson, Dan North Organizations: Separate Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Nomura Global Economics, JPMorgan Chase, Evercore ISI, PPI, Citigroup, Commerce, Fed, Pantheon, Atlanta, Allianz Trade Locations: Red
CNN —The president of the COP28 climate summit, Sultan Al Jaber, recently claimed there is “no science” that says phasing out fossil fuels is necessary to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, in comments that have alarmed climate scientists and advocates. The future role of fossil fuels is one of the most controversial issues countries are grappling with at the COP28 climate summit. Al Jaber was asked by Mary Robinson, former president of Ireland and current chair of the Elders Group, an independent group of global leaders, if he would lead on phasing out fossil fuels. While some argue carbon capture will be an important tool for reducing planet-heating pollution, others argue these technologies are expensive, unproven at scale and a distraction from policies to cut fossil fuel use. “They are not going to get any help from the COP Presidency in delivering a strong outcome on a fossil fuel phase out,” he said in a statement.
Persons: Sultan Al Jaber, Al Jaber, Mary Robinson, Robinson, , Al Jaber’s, what’s, Romain Ioualalen, Al, ” Joeri, Mohamed Adow, Angela Dewan, Rachel Ramirez Organizations: CNN, , Guardian, Elders Group, Abu, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, UN, International Energy Agency, IEA, Stockholm Environment Institute, Change, Imperial College London Locations: Paris, , Abu Dhabi, Stockholm, UN, UAE
Washington CNN —Elon Musk is an increasingly important player in global affairs and has been touring the world to meet with political leaders in recent months. “We can observe Elon Musk’s Twitter/X activity that he regularly consumes right-wing content and this increased during COVID-19,” Facciani said in an email. More recently, however, Musk’s ambitions have come a bit closer to earth and become far more concrete. There are many world leaders who hold extreme or far-right views, of course. Musk’s outbursts that contradict widely held international norms and values are meant for a specific internet audience that Musk mistakes for being representative of the wider world.
Persons: Washington CNN — Elon Musk, White supremacists, Musk, Benjamin Netanyahu, It’s, George Soros, Netanyahu, Matthew Facciani, , Elon, ” Facciani, Vladimir Putin, Rishi Sunak, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, he’s, Ron DeSantis ’, Robert Kennedy Jr, , ” Musk, , reactionism Organizations: Washington CNN, Defamation League, Whites, White, The University of Notre Dame, Twitter, UK, Florida Republican Gov, United States Locations: Israel, Gaza, COVID, Ukraine, Crimea, Washington, United, Russia
Asia off to slow start, lot of easing already priced in
  + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) edged up 0.1%, having climbed 2.8% last week to a two-month high. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) was little changed, and is up almost 9% for the month so far amid upbeat corporate earnings. A LOT PRICED INMarkets have all but priced out the risk of a further hike in December or next year, and imply a 30% chance of an easing starting in March. Futures also imply around 100 basis points of cuts for 2024, up from 77 basis points before the benign October inflation report shook markets. "If another soft print eventuates, expect pricing for ECB cuts to extend beyond the current 100bps of cuts being priced for 2024."
Persons: Issei Kato, Goldman Sachs, Brent nudged, Wayne Cole, Lincoln Organizations: REUTERS, Nikkei, Nvidia, Hamas, Japan's Nikkei, Nasdaq, Tech, Futures, U.S, European Central Bank, NAB, ECB, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, SYDNEY, Israel, United States, Gaza, Asia, Pacific, October's
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. recession where interest rates rise is unlikely, says Evercore's Krishna GuhaMaya MacGuineas, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget president, and Krishna Guha, Evercore ISI head of global policy, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the looming government shutdown deadline, increasing U.S. debt, and more.
Persons: Evercore's Krishna Guha Maya MacGuineas, Krishna Guha, Evercore Organizations: U.S, Federal
Watch CNBC's full interview with Maya McGuineas and Krishna Guha
  + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Maya McGuineas and Krishna GuhaMaya MacGuineas, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget president, and Krishna Guha, Evercore ISI head of global policy, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the looming government shutdown deadline, increasing U.S. debt, and more.
Persons: Maya McGuineas, Krishna Guha Maya MacGuineas, Krishna Guha, Evercore Organizations: Federal
"We fear for the worst for our colleagues in Gaza,” Phillips-Barrasso said. Aid agencies have repeatedly warned that shortages of vital supplies including water are contributing to the unfolding humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza. Phillips-Barrasso said one person had described waiting nearly 22 hours in a queue to get any sort of drinkable water. One woman, referred to as Nasma, wrote that "at night, we try to guess which room is the safest. My mom insists on sleeping with us even though it is very crowded, so that if we die at night, at least we will die together."
Persons: Kenzo Tribouillard, CNN's Kaitlin Collins, Kate Phillips, Barrasso, ” Phillips, Phillips, Nasma Organizations: Getty Images, Mercy Corps Locations: Gaza, AFP, Israel
Led by Editor-in-Chief Alessandra Galloni, Reuters correspondents speak to global policymakers, business leaders and forward thinkers to tackle the greatest challenges and opportunities facing society, business, and the world at large. To watch this video on the mobile app, please click hereAt a time when truth and new ideas have never been more important, Reuters NEXT examines the big issues from different perspectives, fuelled by passion, experience, and expertise. Building a better tomorrow begins with a clearer understanding of today. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Alessandra Galloni Organizations: Reuters NEXT, Thomson
A view shows the logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. With investors confident that big central banks are likely done raising rates, focus has switched to when rate cuts will start. Traders now price in over an 80% chance of a 25 basis-points (bps) ECB cut by April, which had been fully priced for July last week. Piet Christiansen, chief analyst at Danske Bank, said the expectations for ECB rate cuts now reflected a "doom and gloom" scenario. He added the ECB would need to cut rates at least as much as traders expect next year.
Persons: Heiko Becker, BoE, Shamik Dhar, Christine Lagarde, Piet Christiansen, Lagarde, Goldman, Gurpreet Gill, Dario Perkins, Yoruk, Sumanta Sen, Kripa Jayaram, Dhara Ranasinghe, Emelia Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, Traders, ECB, Fed, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, BNY Mellon Investment, Treasury, Reuters, Danske Bank, Asset Management, Lombard, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, United States, Europe, U.S, Britain, Israel
Countries pledged in the 2015 Paris Agreement to hold global warming to within 1.5C above pre-industrial temperatures but the new paper by a team of scientists, including from NASA and Columbia University, adds to evidence suggesting that this goal is already out of reach. Most emissions scenarios under the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) envision the world breaching 1.5C during the 2030s. EARTH SENSITIVITYThe study's findings, published in the journal Oxford Open Climate Change, result from two factors. The IPCC has given a best-guess estimate that the doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels would yield global warming of around 3C (5.4F). Cleaning the skies, while bringing health benefits and saving lives, accelerates climate change.
Persons: Thomas Peter, James Hansen of, Michael Mann, Pennsylvania's Mann, Klaus Hubacek, Katy Daigle, Gareth Jones Organizations: REUTERS, NASA, Columbia University, United Nations, James Hansen of Columbia, Earth Institute, University of Pennsylvania, IPCC, University of Gronigen, Thomson Locations: Gan, Nanchang, Jiangxi province, China, UN, Paris, 1.5C, heatwaves, Libya, Dubai, 4.8C
Where it's being heldThe AI summit will be held in Bletchley Park, the historic landmark around 55 miles north of London. What it seeks to addressThe main objective of the U.K. AI summit is to find some level of international coordination when it comes to agreeing some principles on the ethical and responsible development of AI models. The British government wants the AI Summit to serve as a platform to shape the technology's future. They say that, by keeping the summit restricted to only frontier AI models, it is a missed opportunity to encourage contributions from members of the tech community beyond frontier AI. "By focusing only on companies that are currently building frontier models and are leading that development right now, we're also saying no one else can come and build the next generation of frontier models."
Persons: Rishi Sunak, Peter Nicholls, Rishi Sunak's, ChatGPT, Getty, codebreakers, Alan Turing, It's, Kamala Harris, Saul Loeb, Brad Smith, Sam Altman, Global Affairs Nick Clegg, Ursula von der, Emmanuel Macron, Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau, Olaf Scholz, Sunak, , Xi Jinping, Biden, James Manyika, Manyika, Mostaque, we're, Sachin Dev Duggal, Carl Court Organizations: Royal Society, Carlton, Getty, U.S, Microsoft, Coppin State University, AFP, Meta, Global Affairs, Global Affairs Nick Clegg U.S, Ministry of Science, Technology European, Joe Biden Canadian, Britain, Afp, Getty Images Washington, U.S ., Google, CNBC, Big Tech Locations: London, China, Bletchley Park, British, America, Baltimore , Maryland, Chesnot, U.S, Nusa Dua, Indonesian, Bali, EU
The U.S. domestic drone industry has found itself at a disadvantage when it comes to producing these useful remote-controlled flying machines in America. Chinese drone maker DJI remains the king of the industry, controlling more than 70% of the global drone market. DJI drones are currently used by state university researchers, police departments, firefighters and other groups across the U.S. that could be affected by potential bans on Chinese-produced drones. "It is going to be key that the U.S.-produced drones, or drones produced by trusted allies, become more affordable." Watch the video above to find out if the U.S. drone industry can compete with Chinese drone producers.
Persons: Adam Bry, Adam Welsh, Mark Montgomery Organizations: CNBC, Israel, Center, Foundation for Defense of Democracies Locations: America, China, U.S, DJI, Russia, Ukraine
If the Fed's holdings of long-dated securities were shrinking like other parts of the curve, or even at all, more of these bonds would be available to the wider market. Wang recognizes that if the Fed held fewer longer-dated securities these yields might be even higher, but also points out that the Fed's holdings are largely determined by what Treasury issues. All told, the Fed's 'QT 2' is almost twice the pace of QT 1. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsSince the Fed started QT 2, its total holdings of Treasury bills and bonds have fallen to $4.93 trillion from $5.77 trillion. The average profile of Fed-held Treasury debt is longer than total outstanding Treasury debt, and getting longer.
Persons: Sukree, Benson Durham, Piper Sandler, Joseph Wang, Wang, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Neel Kashkari, Jamie McGeever, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Rights, Fed, Treasury, Reuters, Monetary, Minneapolis, Thomson Locations: Kasikornbank, Bangkok, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, Durham
Morning Bid: Markets regain footing with focus back on Fed
  + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
The U.S. Federal Reserve building is pictured in Washington, March 18, 2008. Meanwhile, 10-year U.S. Treasuries managed their sharpest rally in more than a month at the Tokyo opening on Tuesday, on a combination of the dovish Fed remarks and demand for safe assets. Markets will have plenty more chances to hear from Fed officials, who will be out in full force at events on Tuesday while minutes of their September monetary policy meeting will be published on Wednesday. Elsewhere, the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Morocco get into full swing, with a range of leading global policymakers set to speak. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde makes her appearance at the meetings on Tuesday, speaking after economic data the previous day added fuel to fears of a potential recession in Germany, the euro zone's largest economy.
Persons: Jason Reed, Brigid Riley, Treasuries, Christine Lagarde, Fed's Raphael Bostic, Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari, Mary Daly, Edmund Klamann Organizations: U.S . Federal, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, IMF, World Bank, European Central Bank, PepsiCo, Bank, Thomson Locations: Washington, U.S, Tokyo, Morocco, Germany, Asia, China, Sweden
Oct 10 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The rebound in risk sentiment was largely due to comments from two Fed officials that the recent rise in long-term bond yields and tightening of financial conditions mean the Fed may be done raising rates. The U.S. bond market was closed on Monday for the Columbus Day holiday but futures traded, and the 10-year Treasury future posted its biggest rise since March. The IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Morocco kick into gear on Tuesday, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde and many other leading global policymakers in attendance. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Jamie McGeever, Lori Logan, Philip Jefferson nodded, Janet Yellen, Christine Lagarde, Raphael Bostic, Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari, Mary Daly, Lorie Logan, Philip Jefferson, Waller, Daly Organizations: Dallas, Columbus, Treasury, IMF, World Bank, U.S, European Central Bank, Fed, Bank, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Israel, Gaza, U.S, Lower U.S, Asia, Japan, Pacific, Philippines, Morocco, Marrakech, Kashkari
Oct 9 (Reuters) - Fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East are threatening more volatility for investors after a painful stretch in U.S. markets. Investors were on guard for the potential of the conflict spreading to embroil other countries, including Iran, and a continued spike in oil prices. Prices for gold, a popular destination for investors during uncertain times, were up 1.2% at $1,854.10 per ounce. Among those is the potential of a rebound in oil prices that could weigh on U.S. economic growth and endanger the so-called soft landing narrative that has helped boost stocks this year. “The worst-case scenario from a geopolitical risk perspective would be a full-scale confrontation between Israel and Iran,” said Tina Fordham, geopolitical strategist and founder of Fordham Global Foresight.
Persons: Brent, , Mohit Kumar, Tina Fordham, Paul Nolte, Emmanuel Cau, Althea Spinozzi, Naomi Rovnick, Lewis Krauskopf, Dhara Ranasinghe, Davide Barbuscia, Noel Randewich, Marc Jones, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Jefferies, Fordham Global Foresight, Federal Reserve, Murphy, Sylvest Wealth Management, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Treasury, Barclays, Mobileye, Intel, Solaredge Technologies, East, Saxo Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S, Gaza, Iran, Europe, London, Israel, United States, Germany
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